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By AZ Advisory Team, November 19, 2009 4:09 pm

U.S. commercial real estate transactions rose in the third quarter for the first time since around 2007 but is still way down from a year earlier, said the National Association of Realtors. This organizatio, which hosted the 2009 REALTORS® Conference & Expo in San Diego which ended last Monday, said in its report that Commercial Leading Indicator for brokerage activity index rose 0.9 percent from the prior quarter’s fifteen-year low to 102.4, the first rise since the second quarter of 2007. Still, the index is 11.1 percent below the 115.3 reading in the third quarter of last year.

But NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, stressed that the lack of financing for commercial real estate transactions is slowing down our economic recovery. Yun addressed the government to take action to relieve some of the lending pressure as banks become troubled with the increase of toxic loan portfolios over-leveraged by commercial properties that are losing value now.  Banks then become shy about lending money which create a challenging environment for commercial transactions.

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By Alex Zylberglait, November 16, 2009 9:32 am

As we continue to track the amount of debt in distress across all product types and geographies, it is evident that it’s a matter of time until lenders begin to divest these assets. Even though they currently do not have as much pressure to realize losses immediately they will eventually have to do something about it. Considering they are not generally lending money at this time, the increased defaults will only make their balance sheets that much more unattractive. Having said that, I do not believe that we are likely to see an RTC 2 of some sort but rather the divestiture of troubled or toxic assets will likely come in the form of waves; that is as bank’s balance sheets gradually improve they will likely divest of certain assets over time. The wildcard in all of this, of course, is any kind of government intervention that would act to accelerate or decelerate this probable scenario.

Alex Zylberglait provides commercial real estate investment advisory as well as research, estate planning, asset allocation, valuation, financing, special assets services, transaction advisory and commercial property acquisition and disposition services.

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By AZ Advisory Team, October 23, 2009 10:45 pm

With five of the selected nine asset managers for the Treasury Departments Public Private Investment Program now fully funded with their debt and equity capital commitments, there is some $12.27 billion in purchasing power aimed at the so-called legacy – or to be more precise, toxic – assets still clogging the real estate markets. In short, the program is close to execution as the asset managers now begin what they were ultimately chosen to do: seek out and purchase toxic debt.  Read full article here.

Alex Zylberglait provides commercial real estate investment advisory as well as research, estate planning, asset allocation, valuation, financing, special assets services, transaction advisory and commercial property acquisition and disposition services.

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By AZ Advisory Team, October 16, 2009 4:42 pm

A report today says that Federal bank regulators are close to issuing guidelines aimed at encouraging lenders to work out distressed commercial real estate loans. Many financial institutions face the risk of incurring losses and bankruptcies as distressed borrowers fail to refinance or pay off their loans. Deutsche Bank AG has projected that commercial-real-estate losses for banks could end up being as high as $300 billion.

The guidelines come as regulators are bracing for many more bank failures, particularly at small banks with high exposures to commercial real estate loans. Commercial real estate loans are the second-largest loan type after home mortgages. More than half of the $3.4 trillion in outstanding commercial real estate debt is held by banks.

“Banks are vulnerable to significant further deterioration in their CRE loans,” said Federal Reserve Governor Daniel K. Tarullo. Regulators said high levels of these loans are concentrated in smaller banks, although regional and large banks also have exposure to problems in these areas.

Sheila Bair, Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.  told a Senate subcommittee that reworking the terms of these loans could help banks avoid larger losses. She likened it to the push regulators made last year for banks to rework troubled residential mortgages. Reworked commercial real estate loans “should be encouraged, not criticized. We are encouraging banks to restructure these loans,” she said. ”

Mr. Tarullo said the types of loans causing the most problems are construction and development loans, not investments on existing properties. One reason is that Construction and development loans are likely not bringing any income or revenue for the borrower, making it much easier to fall behind.

Do you welcome this development? What do you think should be done? Let us know.

Alex Zylberglait provides commercial real estate investment advisory as well as research, estate planning, asset allocation, valuation, financing, special assets services, transaction advisory and commercial property acquisition and disposition services.

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By Alex Zylberglait, September 28, 2009 1:35 pm

Lenders, in many cases, are working with borrowers on a modification of loan terms and avoid foreclosures. Buyer interest has been increasing as more properties become available at realistic prices as sellers-backed financing increase making up 50% of transactions compared with only 11% a few years back.

Read the rest of this post from a section of the Marcus & Millichap Special Outlook on Government Programs and Maturities Report below.

Portfolio Lenders More Amenable to Commercial Mortgage Modifications

Many portfolio lenders are actively working with borrowers to modify loan terms and avoid foreclosures. The situation is more difficult for owners with CMBS loans, as multiple parties hold an interest in the mortgage. Delinquent CMBS loans also are transferred to special servicers that have strict limitations related to property foreclosures and distressed sales, further delaying a large inventory of discount sales coming to market.

Distress Spreading

Since the start of 2008, the volume of distressed commercial real estate has swelled to an estimated $115 billion. Distress was initially concentrated among failed development and condo conversion deals, but the office sector took the lead in the fall of 2008 as the financial crisis intensified. The composition of distressed properties has since shifted again, with retail properties now accounting for the greatest share, or 30 percent of the total, up from less than 10 percent one year ago. Of the core commercial real estate sectors, retail recorded the most significant speculative construction in recent years as developers chased, and even built ahead of, rooftops into far-reaching suburbs. The reversal of housing-related fortunes and shrinking stock portfolios have contributed to the loss of $13 trillion from the overall net worth of U.S. households since mid-2007, resulting in a drastic pullback in consumer spending and a growing propensity to conserve cash.

Commercial Lending at Bottom?

Commercial mortgage originations continued to decline during the first half of 2009, reflecting further reductions in loan demand and broad-based constraints on debt capital. In the first quarter alone, originations were down 26 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008 and were nearly 90 percent below levels reported prior to the onset of the credit crunch two years ago. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have recorded the lightest decrease in originations over the past year, as their multi-family loan portfolios continue to perform well.

With the exception of Freddie Mac’s recent securitization, CMBS issuance has been at a complete standstill since last June, while life insurance companies generally remain on the sidelines. Over the past several quarters, real estate investors have relied largely on commercial banks for new loans, which have become wary of originating large loans and increasing their risk exposure to individual assets. The limited amount of debt available from traditional lenders has resulted in a drastic increase in assumed or seller-backed financing in transactions, which now accounts for more than half of the marketplace, compared with only 11 percent a few years ago.

Read Part 1

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Alex Zylberglait provides commercial real estate investment advisory as well as research, estate planning, asset allocation, valuation, financing, special assets services, transaction advisory and commercial property acquisition and disposition services.

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By Alex Zylberglait, September 21, 2009 10:05 am

Now let’s talk about the Public-Private Investment Program or PPIP

The proposed government-private partnerships aimed at moving toxic assets off of banks’ balance sheets were initially well-received and promising, but implementation has proven difficult. To start, banks have raised large amounts of equity capital without having to sell assets at deep discounts, reducing their motivation to participate in the program. Furthermore, some potential participants are reluctant to partner with the government, wary of possible restrictions that could be imposed at a later date.

As of the end of July, PPIP was moving forward but at a scaled-down level. PPIP had targeted the removal of up to $1 trillion of legacy loans and securities from banks’ balance sheets; however, as financial markets improved, the government reduced its target for the first round to $40 billion in legacy securities only. The impacts of a scaled-back PPIP on commercial real estate investors are mixed. While it may take more time for banks to clear their balance sheets of toxic mortgage-related securities, their lack of enthusiasm for the program signals that mortgage term extensions and workouts are likely to continue as a major focus, especially for higher-quality assets.

• Legacy Securities Program. As part of the PPIP, the Legacy Securities Program allows prequalified fund managers to receive an equity contribution and favorable financing from the government to purchase legacy securities. These securities include existing CMBS that were highly rated at the time of issuance. If successful, the program could provide an important price discovery tool, one of the first steps in restarting credit markets and freeing up capital for new lending.
• In early July, the Treasury formally announced its list of nine prequalified fund managers to participate in the first round of the Legacy Securities PPIP. Fund managers have 12 weeks to raise at least $500 million each in private capital, in addition to investing a minimum of $20 million of their firm’s capital into the Public-Private Investment Fund (PPIF).
• The government committed $30 billion to the program to match equity capital raised from private sources and to provide up to 100 percent financing of the total equity in the PPIF. The first round of the PPIP holds the potential to remove up to $40 billion of legacy securities from banks’ balance sheets.
• Legacy Loan Program. In conjunction with the PPIP, the Legacy Loan Program was intended to help banks move whole loans off of their balance sheets. In June, the FDIC postponed a pilot sale by open banks through its Legacy Loan Program, citing banks’ ability to raise capital successfully without moving these assets off of their balance sheets. At the same time, however, the FDIC announced plans to test a similar funding mechanism to sell receivership assets of failed institutions this summer. While the platform may draw from the model utilized by the Resolution Trust Corp. (RTC) in the early 1990s, the list of failed banks consists of mostly smaller institutions; therefore, the quantity, size and quality of assets offered by the FDIC in the foreseeable future will likely pale in comparison to the RTC days.

Special thanks to my colleagues here at Marcus & Millichap, Erica Linn – Senior Analyst, and Hessam Nadji – Managing Director.

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Alex Zylberglait provides commercial real estate investment advisory as well as research, estate planning, asset allocation, valuation, financing, special assets services, transaction advisory and commercial property acquisition and disposition services.

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By Alex Zylberglait, September 18, 2009 8:00 am

In summary…

Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)

• TALF was expanded in May to include highly rated commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Spreads on AAA-rated CMBS have since narrowed dramatically.
• At its first subscription date in July, the legacy CMBS component of TALF received requests for $670 million in loans. All but one of the bonds submitted were accepted as collateral for TALF loans.
• Two REITs are expected to soon test the new CMBS component of TALF, with each projected to borrow up to $600 million against assets in their portfolios. A substantial amount of the capital raised will likely be utilized to pay down maturing debt.
• As a result of the lengthy ramp-up time for this program, TALF has been extended through March 31, 2010, for existing CMBS and through June 30, 2010, for newly issued CMBS.

A growing number of large property owners, investors and lenders will take advantage of the program by year end.

Read Part 1
Read Part 2

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Alex Zylberglait provides commercial real estate investment advisory as well as research, estate planning, asset allocation, valuation, financing, special assets services, transaction advisory and commercial property acquisition and disposition services.

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By Alex Zylberglait, September 16, 2009 9:00 am

Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). TALF was originally established to provide financing for the purchase of newly issued, consumer-related, asset-backed securities such as credit card debt and auto loans. In May, the government expanded TALF to include highly rated new and legacy CMBS in an attempt to help clear up lenders’ balance sheets and increase new commercial mortgage originations. At the announcement of TALF’s expansion to include CMBS, spreads narrowed dramatically. After peaking at more than 1,200 basis points over swaps in the first quarter of 2009, spreads on AAA-rated CMBS declined to approximately 600 basis points by late May. Spreads ticked up in the weeks that followed, after Standard & Poor’s (S&P) announced that changes to its risk-assessment methodology could result in mass downgrades of once highly rated CMBS. More recently, S&P reversed its position and restated the ratings on some of the loan pools. Spreads for AAA-rated CMBS have since declined to 450 basis points over swaps, the lowest point since October of last year. Such fluctuations are indicative of the complexity and uncertainty still impacting the pending solutions for restarting the CMBS market.

• Multiple deals adhering to TALF’s strict guidelines are under way. In order to qualify for TALF, CMBS must have the highest credit rating available from at least two approved ratings agencies. Furthermore, the mortgage pools must consist solely of fixed-rate loans underwritten on current NOIs and valuations; construction loans are not eligible. Major lower-leverage owners such as REITs stand to benefit directly from the program. While developers and smaller private investors are unlikely to reap direct rewards from TALF, they should ultimately benefit from greater availability of debt capital as the credit markets begin to function normally.
• One of the first TALF offerings of newly issued CMBS could involve Developers Diversified Realty (DDR), a retail REIT. DDR is expected to borrow a combined $600 million against two pools of assets in its portfolio. The properties in these pools should qualify, because they are considered relatively low-risk, even in light of the current economic situation, since they offer stable cash flows and are occupied mostly by discount retailers. Furthermore, many of the properties in these pools are reported to be unencumbered at present, and the resulting loan-to-value ratio will be around 40 percent. Vornado Realty Trust is also reported to be assembling a TALF-eligible CMBS deal to raise between $550 million and $600 million for the REIT.
• The legacy CMBS component of the TALF program received requests for $670 million in loans at its first subscription date in July. After reviewing the requests, the Fed approved all but one of the 36 bonds submitted as collateral for TALF loans.

Of the many government programs, TALF appears to hold the most promise for freeing up capital for commercial real estate lending in the near term. Since it can take a few months to organize a TALF-eligible CMBS deal, the program is off to a slow start, but the wheels are now in motion, and a growing number of large property owners and lenders will take advantage of the program by year end. While TALF was set to expire at the close of 2009, the program was recently extended to March 31, 2010, for existing CMBS and June 30, 2010, for newly issued CMBS.

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Alex Zylberglait provides commercial real estate investment advisory as well as research, estate planning, asset allocation, valuation, financing, special assets services, transaction advisory and commercial property acquisition and disposition services.

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By Alex Zylberglait, September 14, 2009 10:24 am

The potential for significant commercial real estate-related losses tied to maturing mortgage debt has emerged as a considerable risk due to constrained credit markets. As a result, government initiatives to improve commercial real estate credit, particularly the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market, have been established. At its peak in 2007, CMBS accounted for nearly 40 percent of the increase in new commercial and multi-family mortgage debt outstanding nationwide. In mid-2008, CMBS issuance came to a standstill, and the void in the marketplace has clearly taken a toll on the commercial real estate sector.

The securitization of commercial mortgage debt should spread the risk associated with a pool of loans to many investors globally. Furthermore, because the debt is sold, lenders are able to replenish capital, thereby enabling new loan originations. During the liquidity boom, issuers of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) passed all risk to investors, so underwriting standards of the underlying loans were not closely monitored. When it became evident that the ratings agencies missed the mark in assessing the risks associated with some CMBS, demand for the product fell sharply. The escalation of the recession into a global financial crisis eliminated any hope for a quick turnaround of the securitized debt market. Over the next year, modifications to the securitization model will be necessary in order to restore investor confidence in CMBS. It is possible that changes will be mandated as part of the new administration’s proposed regulatory reform.

Modifications to the securitization model are likely to include requirements for originators to maintain some level of economic interest in CMBS. This, in turn, should encourage lenders to uphold responsible underwriting standards. Freddie Mac recently drew upon this new model for its first offering of K Certificates in June. The $1 billion securitization of multi-family debt marked the first CMBS to clear the pipeline in a year. Unlike traditional CMBS, however, Freddie Mac is guaranteeing the senior bond classes. Based on the program’s initial success, Freddie Mac could move forward with another securitization later this year.

Over the remainder of 2009, government programs should be instrumental in stimulating demand for traditional existing and newly issued, highly rated CMBS. This should, in effect, mark the starting point for clearing lenders’ balance sheets and eventually lead to increased lending capacity for new commercial mortgage loans.

Government programs to jumpstart commercial mortgage lending have been modified in recent months, both in terms of size and scope, but they continue to move forward and appear on track to be operational by this fall.

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Alex Zylberglait provides commercial real estate investment advisory as well as research, estate planning, asset allocation, valuation, financing, special assets services, transaction advisory and commercial property acquisition and disposition services.