Using a simple spreadsheet software can help you solve the time-value-of-money problems commonly encountered in commercial real estate. You can calculate discounted cash flow (DCF) measures of value and return such as net present value, internal rate of return, and modified internal rate of return, which provide the foundation for many commercial real estate investment principles.
DCF is a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of an investment opportunity. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis uses future free cash flow projections and discounts them (most often using the weighted average cost of capital) to arrive at a present value, which is used to evaluate the potential for investment. If the value arrived at through DCF analysis is higher than the current cost of the investment, the opportunity may be a good one.
Most commercial real estate investors consider the DCF analysis for valuing income-producing property to be superior to single-period ratio analysis. A major advantage of DCF analysis is that it allows consideration of both the amount and the timing of the cash flows (including capital expenditures) from operations as well as from property disposition. Also, once the pro forma cash flows are developed, investors can assess the risk associated with investments by performing a sensitivity analysis. This allows experimentation with a range of uncertain variables such as interest rates, vacancy and rental rates, and appreciation rates to determine their effects on Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Modified Rate of Return (MIRR).
There are many variations when it comes to what you can use for your cash flows and discount rate in a DCF analysis. Despite the complexity of the calculations involved, the purpose of DCF analysis is just to estimate the money you’d receive from an investment and to adjust for the time value of money.
DCF models are powerful, but they do have shortcomings. DCF is merely a mechanical valuation tool, which makes it subject to the axiom “garbage in, garbage out”. Small changes in inputs can result in large changes in the value of a property. Instead of trying to project the cash flows to infinity, a terminal value approach is often used. A simple annuity is used to estimate the terminal value past 10 years, for example. This is done because it is harder to come to a realistic estimate of the cash flows as time goes on.
Here is the formula:

Stay tuned for part 2 on Thursday. Thank you.
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Alex Zylberglait provides commercial real estate investment advisory as well as research, estate planning, asset allocation, valuation, financing, special assets services, transaction advisory and commercial property acquisition and disposition services.